Here in the United States, we’re the most politically divided and polarized we’ve ever been.
That’s the popular belief, but we haven’t had the research to explain whether or why it’s true — until now.
“There’s a reason why Americans are more polarized than ever,” said Sean Westwood, director of the Polarization Research Lab. “We just haven’t been able to pinpoint exactly what it is until now.”
At the Polarization Research Lab, academics from Dartmouth College, Stanford University, and the University of Pennsylvania are studying affective polarization, which Westwood defined as “the idea that Americans have a positive connection with their own party and hatred of the opposing party.” Affective polarization — and its tendency to break down democracy — has been on a troubling rise.
The research tells us that many U.S. politicians have been veering away from the real issues and legislation that matter and are instead feeding the public narratives to make us believe that we’re more divided than we actually are.
“This isn’t about policy,” Westwood said. “This is about emotions, this is about hatred. We can’t solve polarization until we understand where it’s coming from. We have to find out what’s causing partisan animosity to grow in this country.”
The good news? Polarization Research Lab has developed a tool that enables every American to confront the realities of our alleged political divides. The more empowered we are with the truth, the more everyone can have open conversations with one another.
This means renewing our ability to talk, debate, and progress — as individuals and as a nation.
Defining the polarization paradox
If you want to solve a problem, you must first diagnose it. But with American political polarization, it’s not quite so simple.
According to Westwood, nearly two-thirds of Americans say we are more divided as a nation than ever. It’s clear we’re facing a moment of marked disunity, but we can’t fix it effectively until we can pin down what’s causing it and the extent to which it exists.
Most of our data about American sentiment comes from political polling, which happens intermittently, usually every four years or so, around elections. That lag makes it difficult to draw up-to-date conclusions on public opinion.
So, how did PRL tackle the gap? By going big and building the largest, most detailed study ever conducted to measure partisan conflict in this country — as Westwood described it, “an EKG of American political democracy.”
Here’s how it works: Each week, PRL measures the opinions of 1,000 Americans. Polls measure their level of support for topics like democratic norm violations and political violence and the extent to which they hate people on the opposite end of the political spectrum.
At the same time, PRL tracks communications and social media from elected officials and political commentators, providing a side-by-side comparison of how Americans feel and how accurately elite rhetoric matches their attitudes.
What have the researchers found?
“Our research suggests that there’s a very clear and singular reason for why partisan animosity is at an all-time high,” Westwood said. “When we look at this data, we get some good news, but there’s also some bad news. The good news is that the absolute majority of Americans stand upon the principles this country is based on.”
Principles like fairness, equal opportunity, and democracy are alive and well. A majority of Americans from both political parties oppose reducing polling stations, support the decisions of judges, and support reducing censorship in the media.
The bad news, however, is that the country is still very polarized. According to Westwood, about 86% of Americans have nothing positive to say about those on the other side of the aisle, and up to a quarter of Americans see the other side as evil or bad.
PRL has also uncovered the origins of much of this division.
“When an American turns on their TV, or when they go to social media, they’re going to see political conflict,” Westwood said. “It’s not just in the period around a presidential election, it’s every day. Here’s the thing: The Kardashians set social culture for young girls; Lebron James sets social culture for young boys. Our lab, for the first time, has identified that Americans are modeling their political behavior on what they hear from their elected officials. They set the norms for political culture.”
For better or for worse, politics today isn’t happening behind closed doors. Nearly everything a politician says and does is documented in real time on the internet. While that can lead to unfiltered elite rhetoric reaching further into the homes of many Americans, it also creates a valuable well of data for PRL to draw from and analyze.
“We’re able to identify the connection between the attitudes of elected officials and the attitudes of citizens because not only do we have survey data, but we’re pulling in everything that American elected officials say,” Westwood explained.
Press releases, newsletters, and social media posts allow sophisticated AI tools to identify patterns in a politician’s public statements: Are they discussing policy and the needs of their constituents? Or are they more concerned with making personal attacks and riling up others?
“When we look at that, we’re able to identify a clear pattern,” Westwood said. “When [leaders and politicians] become more negative, citizens become more negative.”
That doesn’t just result in pessimistic Americans. It freezes our ability to make progress as a society. When our most critical issues are shrouded in hate and alarm, we are unable to talk openly, consider all sides, or make informed decisions to move forward.
“When we’re in a world where it’s impossible to talk to the other side, it’s impossible to have the kind of critical, policy-focused discourse that is necessary for democracy to function,” Westwood said.
